Greenland: Europe must act now to stave off Trump’s temptation

It has become blatantly obvious that Donald Trump and his entourage’s intention to acquire Greenland is no laughing matter. It is officially a ‘national security priority for the United States’.

The American president does what he says, particularly when the risk to the US or himself is low. So-called legal justifications in the case of Greenland would not be the same as they were for Venezuela, nor would the modus operandi. Other justifications have already been put forward: Greenland is of major strategic importance (which it clearly is); it is vulnerable and Denmark is unable to take appropriate protective measures (which is highly questionable). Trump has alluded to the Russian and Chinese ships crowding into the region and mocks the ‘additional dog sled’ invested by Denmark to protect Greenland, despite the Danes having recently invested in 16 additional F35s, arctic ships, maritime patrol aircrafts and other key systems. The Danish ambassador to the US has pointed out that Denmark has committed $13.7bn to strengthen Arctic capabilities and operations. Donald Trump’s adviser Stephen Miller, whose wife has posted a map of Greenland overlaid with a US flag and the word ‘soon’, questions the status of Greenland, without any legal basis. The Americans’ interest in making Greenland theirs is real, strategic, economic and political; based on their contempt for Europeans, they certainly consider the risk and cost of their strategy as minimal.

The joint statement issued in Paris on Tuesday 6 January by France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and Denmark is a strong message of solidarity and a clear reaffirmation of the commitments within NATO, as well as bilateral agreements between the US and Denmark; it also champions the sovereignty of Greenland and Denmark. The President of the European Council, António Costa, expressed EU support in similar terms.

Will it be enough to deter American action, including the military option they haven’t ruled out?

Threatening that NATO would be dead in the event of American aggression towards an ally will not impress Washington, at least not in the MAGA sphere. Calling for the implementation of Article 5 would trigger a complex process, to be managed by a paralysed Secretary General and a divided NATO Council, meanwhile American action would be a ‘fait accompli’, immediately proclaimed to the rest of the world. It would be the worst imaginable scenario for Europe and the most palatable to Putin, who could take advantage of the opportunity to test NATO either on its eastern flank, or through hybrid actions.

The only option is prevention – now. The Americans say they are concerned about Greenland’s vulnerability and accuse Danes and Europeans of negligence. An immediate proposal should be presented to Denmark and Greenland for military support, up to and including an on-the-ground presence. The absolute prerequisite is Greenland’s and Denmark’s sovereign will. They should be reassured that other European States are ready to deploy protection forces and equipment in Greenland: it could involve the signatories of Tuesday’s statement, but also Nordic States and possibly Canada, which itself is under threat.

Two elements are critical to such an approach. First, it does not preclude discussions between Denmark, Greenland and the US, to enhance the existing cooperation. It could even facilitate such discussions and secure a more equal footing. Second, a reinforcement of our presence should be planned and conducted by military headquarters independent of American command, communication and intelligence services.

The situation we could face in ‘20 days’ or ‘two months’ when the US could take control of a sovereign European territory was not seriously contemplated even a few months ago. We have no other option than to calmly, but rapidly and independently, plan and conduct security and military support – in accordance with Denmark and Greenland’s wishes – to avert a major crisis.