Georgia’s democratic unravelling, Europe’s strategic test

Once viewed as a democratic success, Georgia is now undergoing a rapid authoritarian reversal. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, led by billionaire and former prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, has spent recent years tightening its grip on power, capturing the judiciary, media and state institutions, while constraining space for civil society and dissent.

In May 2024, parliament adopted the so-called ‘foreign agents law’, followed by a series of repressive regulations, mirroring Russia’s legislation to suppress independent civil society and media. The October 2024 parliamentary elections were marred by widespread fraud, voter intimidation and administrative manipulation. The European Parliament deemed the elections ‘neither free nor fair’ and declined to recognize the new government, leaving the ruling regime – the Georgian Dream party – isolated from Western partners and estranged from much of its population.

Domestically, the regime faces mass protests and a growing legitimacy crisis. In early 2025, Georgian Dream postponed the country’s EU integration process until 2028, triggering nationwide demonstrations and signalling a decisive break from the country’s long-standing pro-European course, enshrined in its Constitution. This reversal comes despite the EU’s decision in late 2023 to grant Georgia candidate country status, a milestone that has symbolized the European aspirations of the Georgian people. Simultaneously, ties with China and Iran have deepened, reflecting a broader geopolitical pivot away from the Euro-Atlantic sphere.

Democratic backsliding

The ruling party’s consolidation of power follows a pattern reminiscent of Kremlin-style governance. Through judicial capture and pervasive corruption, Georgia’s institutional checks and balances have been systematically weakened. Arbitrary arrests and prosecutions of protesters and opposition figures, along with systemic human rights violations, have become routine, creating a climate of fear and self-censorship. Independent media and civil society face increasing financial and legal pressures, undermining their capacity to operate freely and hold the government to account. Georgian Dream’s recent efforts to marginalize political opponents, particularly pro-Western parties, and to restrict their participation further underscore its objective of entrenching one-party dominance.

A once fragile but hopeful democracy is being dismantled piece by piece, replaced by a kleptocratic system sliding toward authoritarianism. Europe, which has invested heavily in Georgia’s democratic institutions and integration prospects over the past three decades, distracted by internal challenges, risks becoming a passive observer to the authoritarian unravelling of one of its previously closest partners.

Russia’s hybrid grip on the region

The regional landscape in the South Caucasus is shifting rapidly. The US-brokered peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan has opened new prospects for stability and closer cooperation with Western partners, complemented by Armenia’s rapid shift towards the EU and away from Russia. In this new context, Georgia risks becoming the primary vector for Russian influence in the region.

Moscow no longer needs to rely solely on military aggression to assert dominance. Instead, it employs hybrid tools – financial networks, media penetration, propaganda and disinformation, and electoral interference – to shape its desired outcome, making Georgia a testbed for its hybrid warfare strategy.

The Kremlin’s influence campaign reaches beyond economics. Through state-linked media and coordinated online operations, Moscow seeks to reshape public opinion, depicting the EU and the United States as threats to Georgian sovereignty. The foreign agents law reinforces this messaging by stigmatizing independent civil society organizations as Western proxies.

The Georgian government’s refusal to join the West’s sanctions against Russia is not neutrality; rather it is silent alignment. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, bilateral trade between Moscow and Tbilisi has surged.

Strategic risks: the Kulevi and Anaklia deep-sea ports

The Kulevi port and oil terminal project on Georgia’s Black Sea coast illustrates how its economic influence can advance Russia’s strategic objectives. A consortium with opaque, Russia-linked ownership is constructing an oil refinery and export terminal under the pretence of private investment. In practice, however, the project risks becoming a conduit for laundering Russian oil and circumventing Western sanctions, thereby undermining the EU’s energy embargo from within its immediate neighbourhood. Simultaneously, a Chinese consortium currently under US sanctions is reportedly expected to participate in the development of the Anaklia deep-sea port.

More critically, a Russia-controlled port at Kulevi would grant Moscow an additional strategic foothold on the Black Sea, reinforcing its occupation of almost 20 per cent of Georgian territory, supporting the ongoing militarization of Crimea and enabling the establishment of a new naval base in occupied Abkhazia’s Ochamchire region. Behind the facade of commercial enterprise, Russia is systematically expanding its logistical and intelligence presence, reshaping the regional balance of power in ways that endanger both Georgian sovereignty and European security.

Europe cannot afford to lose Georgia

Georgia’s authoritarian turn is not an isolated crisis; it is a test of Europe’s strategic foresight and credibility. Positioned at the crossroads of Europe, the Black Sea and the South Caucasus, Georgia serves as a crucial link between the EU, Central Asia and the Middle East.

A democratic Georgia would bolster Europe’s eastern flank; an authoritarian Georgia aligned with Moscow would undermine it. The EU’s credibility as a guarantor of democratic reforms, transparency and the rule of law now hangs in the balance.

Ultimately, Georgia’s struggle is about more than one nation’s democratic future – it is a measure of the European project’s resilience. If democracy can collapse in an EU candidate country within a year, what does that say about its durability across Europe?

Yet Georgia is not lost. More than 80 per cent of its citizens remain unwaveringly pro-European, backing EU and NATO membership. Despite growing repression, journalists, activists and civil society groups continue to resist authoritarianism at great personal risk. Their courage keeps Georgia’s democratic spirit alive even as its institutions erode.

This is why I urge Europe now to match that civic courage with strategic resolve. This means:

• Holding the Georgian government accountable for democratic backsliding and electoral manipulation.
• Investigating Russia-linked ventures such as the Kulevi Port that undermine EU sanctions and regional stability.
• Making financial and political engagement conditional on measurable democratic reforms and protection of civil liberties.
• Reasserting a strategic presence in the South Caucasus through sustained economic and security initiatives, including the new Black Sea security strategy.

These are not merely moral imperatives – they are matters of European security and credibility. Turning away would mean losing Georgia and weakening Europe’s own principles along the Black Sea frontier. The lesson of 2008, when international inaction emboldened Russian aggression, remains starkly relevant.

What begins in Georgia rarely ends there. The time for us to act is now – before Georgia becomes a symbol of Europe’s complacency towards Russia, and Georgia’s democracy slips beyond recovery.