The US Election and Europe

It is no exaggeration to state that the possibility of a second Trump presidency is causing ripples of anxiety to cross the pond.  There is the question of Ukraine and the risk of Trump doing a deal with Putin at the expense of Kyiv and European security more broadly. There is NATO, where Trump has already threatened to ‘walk out’ as a lever to make Europeans compliant with his wishes.      

A US–Chinese economic war looms, into which Europe is likely to get dragged. Wide-ranging tariffs have been signalled during the Trump campaign, while on climate change, ‘We will drill, baby, drill!’ has become a key election pledge to end the US cost-of-living crisis.      

That said, Trump is no longer an unknown quantity. Although Trump 2.0 would not be the same, there are lessons to be drawn from the first encounter with this potential president.

No time to waste

Trump is battle hardened and this time around, he seems better prepared for the job. He has surrounded himself by MAGA loyalists and professionals who have crafted a policy agenda he did not possess in 2017. 

Unhindered by ‘adults in the room’, we should expect his administration to get out of the blocks faster than eight years ago, making the first 100 days count. Undoubtedly, his biggest goals will be domestic: draining the swamp for real this time and settling accounts with domestic rivals. 

But the rest of the world will be on notice.

Back in Spring 2017, European leaders spent a long time hoping to convince Trump to speak their language on free trade, multilateralism and a host of other things. There was even a tendency among them to treat him like a child, who needed to be berated and educated. 

Unsurprisingly, it led nowhere. We now know that Trump is never going to change his modus operandi. If anything, he has become more convinced of his own agenda. Europe will need to deal with the man as he is.

Waiting out a Trump presidency, as was Europe’s plan in his first term, is not an option, not least because of the war in Ukraine. A settlement in that conflict will not just decide the future of Ukraine. It will define the security architecture for the entire continent and shape Europe’s long-term relationship with Russia. 

Speaking the language of the deal

We have also learnt that Trump views diplomacy in narrow transactional terms, much like business and real-estate deals. Historical ties across the Atlantic do not count for much, nor do multilateral trade rules. Handling Trump 2.0 will have to include creative dealmaking and offers that appeal to him as a man of business.

Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker understood this when in July 2018 he went to see Trump in the White House and cut a deal to avert the US levying tariffs on European cars. Trump paid little regard to European arguments that such tariffs were illegal under WTO rules. He was, however, willing to withdraw the threat of tariffs when Juncker committed the EU to buying more US soybeans in return. 

Deal-making is Trump’s preferred language and Europe will need to speak it too. Deals will have to be lined up to avert a trade war with the US. Deals will have to be done to keep climate policy on track. And deals will need to be struck to keep the US committed to European security and NATO. Already, Trump has said he will demand that alliance members spend three per cent of their GDP on defence, calling the current two per cent obligation ‘the steal of the century’.

The importance of ‘getting along’

Personal relations and top-level diplomacy are critical for working with Trump. He looks down on international institutions, courts and bureaucracies, precisely the sort of practices the EU loves and excels in. Instead, he prefers to do his diplomatic business ‘Man to Man’ and ‘Leader to Leader’.

His style of diplomacy is deeply personal. What counts for Trump, possibly even more than getting a good deal, is getting respect from other leaders. He wants to ‘get along’ and sets a lot of store by personal chemistry, as we know from his good relationships with strongmen like Putin and Xi. 

Not all European leaders were successful in getting along with Trump. But we now know what appeals to Trump’s self-esteem: red carpets, golden chandeliers, dashes of glamour. Macron showed the way in 2017 by inviting Trump to a glitzy dinner on the Eiffel tower and to the Bastille Day military parade. Relaxed banter in front of the cameras, manly handshakes and backslapping, praise and flattery: this is how respect is conveyed to the self-declared top dealmaker in the world. 

Whoever goes into the White House to defend a European interest, whether a leader from Brussels or from a national capital, must be comfortable with acting out this piece of political theatre. And he or she must do so without the slightest sign of disapproval, moral hesitation or any sentiments of intellectual superiority.

Deep diplomatic coordination

Finally, Europe needs to reflect on whom it sends to the White House to convey the right message at the right time and in the right way. The stakes of mishandling this are enormous. New levels of coordination will be needed. 

Mark Rutte, Secretary General at NATO, is likely to play an important role in bending Trump’s ear on Ukraine and European security more broadly. On the latter, the continent remains a norm-taker and US client. Room for pushback against the POTUS is limited. He who pays the piper calls the tune. The former Dutch prime minister will have to earn Trump’s trust and deploy all his guile and social intelligence, which he famously possesses in abundance.

Other European leaders will have to do their part on defence, on trade, on the Middle East and on economic security. Leaders of the EU institutions in Brussels are unlikely to cut it with the New York real estate mogul. He more readily recognizes presidents and prime ministers of states as his interlocutors. During the first 18 months in the White House, Trump had no idea who Jean-Claude Juncker was, or that he needed to talk to him about trade deals and not to Macron or Merkel. 

Ursula von der Leyen will have her work cut out. Generally, Trump finds it easier to build a personal rapport with men. Women in power can be a challenge to him, as Angela Merkel will no doubt recall. Given her warm connections with MAGA republicans such as Elon Musk, Italy’s Georgia Meloni has a better shot.

Clearly, not all European leaders trust Meloni to do Europe’s bidding. But Macron is politically wounded and Olaf Scholz’s coalition is limping to the finish line. The options are limited. They certainly do not include Viktor Orban, who is more likely to do Trump’s bidding in Europe instead. Back in the fray is Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, who dealt with his namesake during his time as European Council president. Warsaw’s defence spending is rising to a whopping 4.7 per cent of GDP in 2025, which will earn Tusk credit points in Washington.

Conclusion

Whether this will be enough is another matter. Arguably the most crucial job falls to former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa, who takes over from European Council president Charles Michel. His task will be to build a united internal front and keep EU leaders together during the long years of a second Trump presidency. 

This will be far from easy. Divide and rule is a tactic that Trump, no less than Xi or Putin, knows how to use. Already, the domestic political scene in Europe is unstable. Victory for the GOP candidate on November 5 will make it even less predictable, as politicians such as Viktor Orbán, Geert Wilders and Marine le Pen will be empowered by his return. Federal elections in Germany are scheduled to take place in September 2025. French presidential elections are due in April 2027. A great deal rides on their outcome. 

There are some things we can learn from Donald Trump’s first sojourn in the White House. We know the mistakes we made the first time and how to avoid them. This can help us Europeans, as Merkel put it in May 2017, ‘take our destiny into our own hands’. However, for the continent to retain grip on its future at all, the most important thing it needs to do is stick together.