Greenland and Arctic Geopolitics

The revival of the US Monroe Doctrine through Donald Trump’s offer to ‘buy’ Greenland from Denmark or to take it by force has made the Arctic a focus for renewed geopolitical tension. In pushing back against Europe's presence in the region, Trump has argued that the United States’ sphere of influence should extend across the entire American continent, and used his address to Congress on 4 March 2025 to reassert that control of Greenland is in the interests of US security and the ‘freedom of the world’. A closer look at the map of the Arctic Circle reveals the geographical proximity of the great powers in the frozen North, but also the potential advantages that Greenland holds.  

New maritime routes between the Atlantic and the Pacific are likely to be possible soon, as the ice recedes and the Transpolar Route becomes open to ships other than ice-breakers. The Northeast Passage along Russia’s coast is already navigable for longer periods during the year, significantly shortening distances and fuel costs between Europe and Asia. If Trump controlled Greenland, he would gain direct access to the Transpolar Route and could compete directly with Europe and Russia, both of which have natural access to this corridor. The US would then also hold strategic positions at both shipping choke points to the Pacific, via Alaska, and to the Atlantic, via Greenland, not to mention access to the rare earths buried beneath the island.  

Sitting off the coast of Canada, Greenland lies between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. If global warming continues, the island’s untapped oil and minerals are inevitably going to become more accessible and exploitable. An estimated 30 per cent of the world’s gas reserves and 10 per cent of undiscovered oil reserves are located there. The Arctic is rich in deposits that are controlled by the exclusive economic zones of the five states bordering the Arctic Ocean: Canada, the United States, Russia, Norway and Denmark (through Greenland). Russia’s Arctic territory alone is believed to contain 60 per cent of the region’s gas reserves. 

As the world’s largest island, Greenland is a territory of the Kingdom of Denmark and an overseas territory associated with the European Union. It gained home rule in 1979. In a 2008 referendum, Greenlanders voted for greater autonomy, control over energy resources and recognition of Greenlandic as the official language in place of Danish. The prime minister of Greenland, Mute Egede, has said that what happens on the island is Greenland’s business, but Denmark retains control over key policy areas including citizenship, monetary policy, security and foreign affairs. The US has one base, the Pituffik Space Base, located in the northwest of the island, which operates under NATO as an early warning system for ballistic missile attack.  

The Arctic region has long been regarded as requiring special protection. The Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum, was created in 1996 to address issues faced by Arctic states and the indigenous peoples of the region. These include the Saami in Scandinavia and Russia, the Nenets, Khanty, Evenks and Chukchi in Russia, as well as the Aleut, Yupik and Inuit peoples in Alaska, Canada and Greenland. The Council painstakingly balances claims and desires for sovereignty in the region, alongside indigenous rights and environmental issues, but holds no sway over the geopolitical outcome of this particular dispute.