Positioning BRICS in Time and Space

The expansion of BRICS, an informal political bloc, is indicative of the shifting dynamics of global power. This map, capturing three distinct stages of its development, spotlights the group’s evolving composition and its performance against the G7 countries. The potential implications for global order and economic realignment are plainly evident, as are the emerging contours of political alliances and competition.

Infamously, the term ‘BRICS’ was originally coined in a 2001 Goldman Sachs investment report to denote the world’s largest and rapidly growing manufacturing countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. It was not until 2006 that the BRICS heads of state began meeting informally, and, in contrast to other international summits, the level of participation has continued to grow.  

These founding members leveraged their new status to develop an alternative narrative, distinct from the Western hegemony in global governance. One notable example was the establishment of the Shanghai-based New Development Bank in 2012. Led by former Brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, it is meant to evolve into an alternative to the Bretton Woods institutions. Although some argue that it is not intended to replace the World Bank, in reality, BRICS is attempting to de-dollarize its financial flows and has discussed creating a new reserve currency. A challenge that has not gone unnoticed, as president-elect Trump has recently threatened the BRICS+ members with 100% tariffs, if they pursue displacing the dollar.
 
In 2023, a first wave of expansion brought Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates into BRICS+ and marked a strategic turning point by incorporating Middle Eastern petro-states. Notably, Iran and the UAE amplify the BRICS’ collective influence in commodities markets, particularly for oil, with the bloc potentially controlling nearly half of global oil production while accounting for only 35% of its consumption.

The most recent development at the October 2024 summit in Kazan, Russia, was the designation of further countries – Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam – as ‘partners’. All have informally signalled their interest in eventually becoming full BRICS+ members. This second wave has raised international security questions in the West, which finds Turkey’s interest, as a NATO member, particularly striking. However, the attendance of the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at the meeting was to prove a more unwelcome surprise. 

According to the World Economic Forum, the BRICS+ group represents 45% of the global population and 28% of the world’s GDP. With their demographic advantage, the BRICS+ nations boast both a substantial consumer base and a formidable labour force now and in the future.  

In 2022, BRICS+ countries accounted for 38% of global manufacturing. If the BRICS+ partners are included, this share rises to 42%, surpassing that of the G7 (41%).

Moreover, almost a third of the EU's total imports originated from BRICS states alone. If all BRICS+ members and partners are added, then they represent 41% of EU imports, which highlights the strategic challenges of G7 attempts to isolate Russia from its allied economies.

 As BRICS+ expands, the geopolitical rivalry between China, Russia and the United States frames the group’s fight for global dominance.