Dealing with ‘the Don’

Picture Don Vito Corleone at his daughter’s wedding in The Godfather, showered with gifts and the fawning gestures of his guests, consulting with his consigliere and family members, offering protection or help in exchange for loyalty, debt and future service. So appears Trump in Mar-a-Lago. The president-elect is assembling his court and accepting homage and pledges from various supplicants. He receives visitors from abroad (such as Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister), chats with old and new confidantes and puts his people in place for their jobs in Washington and beyond. The mood in the resort is seemingly buoyant, an extended victory party before official White House responsibility kicks in. 

From across the Atlantic, the Europeans have sent gifts too; their generous offer to buy more US gas and weapons seemed well-received. However, from this Don’s apparent calm and benevolence, they should not conclude that all is forgiven. Hope is a bad counsellor. They should instead be braced for the full disruptive force that an ill-disposed and all-powerful American president and commander-in-chief can unleash. Like Corleone, Trump can smell fear. 

Europeans no doubt recognize their situation is less comfortable than in 2017. As most observers agree, Trump himself is stronger now. He is more experienced and better prepared than after his 2016 election victory, driven by a strong sense of revenge and retribution, and largely liberated from opposition now that he has almost complete control over the Republican Party, Congress and the Supreme Court.

To make matters worse, Europe’s position has weakened in the past eight years. Not least because Russia’s 2022 war against Ukraine has handed the US government greater leverage over Europe than it already had. For the states in the east of the continent, an invasion by the Russian army today is an imminent risk to be avoided at all costs. Meanwhile, Trump’s entourage toys with the idea of playing the European security–dependency card to its advantage. Just a few weeks before the election, vice-president nominee J. D. Vance suggested that US support for NATO should be conditional on the European Union not regulating Elon Musk and his social media platform X. As unserious as this proposal may be, it gives a hint of Mar-a-Lago's style of diplomacy.

The other weakening factor for Europe is its sluggish economic performance. Governments cannot afford to take hits. The tariffs Trump intends to impose could derail Europe’s fragile growth prospects and tip it into recession. Since trade interests diverge widely among EU members even in normal times, it will be challenging for the 27 governments to agree on a coordinated response. The US president may also try to play them off against each other, distributing favours and threats (reduced tariffs for friends, special taxes for foes) at will.

European unity over trade is imperative. As in previous crises or moments of fierce tension – such as the sovereign debt crisis – the arrival of Trump will unleash both centrifugal and centripetal forces on the Union. The risk of the bloc falling apart or of EU member states going it alone are very real possibilities. The US president will not hesitate to exploit any perceived division to drive a wedge between member states. In the past, such moments have galvanized leaders, fostered unity and resulted in unexpected political determination.

In 2017 it fell to the European Council, the body of presidents and prime ministers, to maintain the European line. President Donald Tusk (2014-19) made “ united we stand, divided we fall” the motto of the second half of his mandate. In the months before Trump’s first term, the 27 European leaders had already “practiced unity” in the face of the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum: an electoral blow to their self-confidence, but a useful exercise. Tusk was aided by the European Council’s most senior member, Angela Merkel. The German Chancellor had decided to stand for re-election for a fourth term in November 2016 to offer Europe (and the West) an anchor of stability in troubled times.  She repeatedly explained to Trump that in trade matters he could not deal bilaterally with Germany but had to talk to the EU and its representatives. Despite not being a favourite in the White House for reasons of being both German and a woman (factors which will also hamper the effectiveness of current Commission president Ursula von der Leyen), Merkel played an essential role in keeping the EU together.

The new European Council president, António Costa, assumed the mantle of Trump’s EU counterpart on 1 December. ‘Europe and the World’ is the key agenda item of his first summit as chair, on 19-20 December; a Trump summit in all but name. An informal brainstorm on Europe’s defence needs is planned for leaders two weeks after inauguration day in Washington, DC. Trump Summit #2.

The thorniest question for Europe is who to send as emissary to the White House? Among EU leaders who have already worked with Trump in his first term, a few stand out. French president Macron, a natural candidate, is domestically weakened; notwithstanding a promising start between him and Trump in 2017, bad blood was subsequently spilt between them (and, like Don Corleone, the American bears a grudge). But with Trump’s unexpected confirmation to attend the grand reopening of Notre Dame, an opportunity for reconciliation may yet present itself.

António Costa and Donald Tusk are both survivors of Trump 1.0: the former is now European Council chair rather than one of its members, whereas Tusk is back on the other side of the table as prime minister of Poland again. Both can speak for Europe in DC, formally or informally.

Others are Viktor Orbán, the American’s closest ideological ally within the EU, and Mark Rutte, former Dutch prime minister and now NATO secretary general. Asked recently whether he would make use of Orban’s favourable reception at the White House, Costa answered: “I will look to members of the European Council to act as people who can help my job. … Look, it’s public: Orbán enjoys very close relations with President Trump. And it certainly helps.” (quoted in the Financial Times, 22 November 2024). As for Rutte, he is trusted by his former Council colleagues to do some of their bidding when it comes to the future of the Alliance. 

A potentially interesting new member of the European cast whom Costa could turn to is Giorgia Meloni. The Italian prime minister – who will also encounter Trump in the G7 – deftly positions her government politically between Orbán to her right and Europe’s mainstream to her left.

Costa will have to draw on all his past political experience to handle the Don. A renowned ‘bridge builder’, he faces a critical challenge in violent times. He should be creative in thinking about who will accompany him into Trump’s inner sanctum. Just as the French president and German Chancellor have spoken jointly to presidents of Russia and Ukraine on behalf of ‘Europe’, Costa can assemble another team of leaders for the reckoning with the POTUS. If Coppola’s film tells us anything, the Don demands respect, but he also respects an equal. Supplicants will be indebted for the favours bestowed, but an equal will be worthy of a business exchange.  Europe must ultimately grow in self-respect and realize that it can be a powerful equal when it is united.