Corridors of Power: the Black Sea Cable between Azerbaijan and Europe

Pipelines have long shaped energy geopolitics, but our maps must soon chart a new type of power line, namely electricity cables. Their addition does not lessen the impact of geopolitics on energy; rather, it amplifies it. The Black Sea Submarine Cable, intended to create a high-voltage link between Azerbaijan and continental Europe, is a prime example of the new dynamics of energy connections. 

Spanning 1,195 km, the cable will export renewable energy from the Caucasus to the EU. It encapsulates Azerbaijan’s ambition to become a green electricity exporter – a narrative Baku is eager to promote as host of the upcoming COP29 climate summit in November 2024.

Alongside Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary signed their first agreement on the project in 2022. Set for completion in 2029, the cable is part of the EU’s Global Gateway initiative. The project has secured a €2.3 billion investment from the European Commission and a $35 million loan from the World Bank. Once operational, it will be the world’s longest subsea energy cable. Azerbaijan holds substantial renewable electricity potential, with plans for offshore and onshore wind farms along its Caspian Sea coast and for vast solar projects. However, the sector remains as yet underdeveloped. The country aims to generate 30% of its electricity from renewables by 2030, meaning 70% would still come from natural gas when the cable is operational. 

Azerbaijan is already a vital gas supplier to Europe via the existing pipeline network, a role that increased following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, as Europe’s reliance on Azerbaijan grows, so do concerns about engaging with an authoritarian regime, particularly given its recent military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh and its parlous human rights record. 

Risks and challenges also figure prominently in the plan. The cable’s route through the Black Sea – south of Crimea, skirting the war zone in Ukraine – complicates both its realization and its security. Since the war began, free-floating mines have threatened the safe passage of oil tankers. Any vessel laying the submarine cable would face similar risks, and the cable itself could become an easy target for sabotage.

Heralded as a gamechanger for Europe’s green energy future, the Black Sea Cable vividly illustrates how energy security, geopolitical conflict and climate commitments increasingly intersect. Our maps of energy geopolitics will need to be updated accordingly.